No Margin for Error: Liberia’s Runoff Election
Liberia’s recent presidential election marked several firsts in the newly democratic country. Held on October 10th, this was the first election supported by the Liberian government without international interference since the end of the Liberian civil war in 2003. It was also the second time in over seven decades that the party holding presidential office has changed, the first being incumbent president George Weah’s ascension to the presidency over six years ago.
Ballot results were incredibly close, leading to a runoff held in early November. The runoff resulted in Joseph Boakai beating presidential incumbent George Weah by 0.8%. The close election was a critical test of representative rule in Liberia as political violence mounted in the lead-up to George Weah’s eventual concession on November 17th.
Weah has gained international praise for conceding his presidential seat, particularly from President Biden. In an official statement, Joe Biden praised Weah, stating, “The people of Liberia have exercised their constitutional right and demonstrated the power of that truth. And they have set a clear example for West Africa and the entire world. Democracy is a powerful tool for progress, and democracies can deliver for our people.” As only the second test of a peaceful transfer of power in Liberia, the next few months will be critical for the future of Liberia’s democratic system and will be an indicator of the state of democracy in West Africa.
An Intense Rivalry
The election was the closest race since the Liberian civil war, with a record turnout of 78.86% of 2.4 million registered voters. The runoff was a rematch of the 2017 election, a political race between the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) party and the United Party (UP). George Weah won by a landslide in 2017. As a former international soccer star, Weah gained considerable populist appeal among Liberian citizens. Conversely, Boakai was given the name “Sleepy Joe” due to reports of him falling asleep at official events. Liberia’s electoral commission declared a runoff after incumbent President George Weah and opposition candidate Joseph Boakai both failed to secure enough votes. The margin of victory for Weah was slim, at 43.83% of the vote, while Bosakai held 43.44%. Ahead of the election, President Weah faced political blowback. After promising to combat political corruption during his term, political opponents claimed Weah made little or no progress on his campaign promises from 2017. Public sentiment was openly divided but voters grew increasingly disillusioned with Weah’s campaign promises to combat corruption.
Questions of political legitimacy and election transparency quickly surfaced. During the first round of voting, the ruling party, Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC), prematurely claimed victory after only a limited number of polling results were released. Claiming victory prior to official release is a clear violation of the 2023 Farmington River Declaration, a pledge among several African nations to work towards peaceful elections.
Transparency was also a significant problem during the general election. The National Electoral Commission in Liberia arrested nine people for campaign fraud. Temporary electoral staffers were seen tampering with votes and performing electoral malpractices. Both parties, the CDC and UP, raised suspicion of campaign finance fraud and election tampering before the runoff.
Political Violence
Suspicion of election fraud and voter tampering incited pre-campaign violence in early October. Seif Magango, Liberia’s spokesperson in the UN Human Rights Office, stated concern with “ reported instances of election-related violence, use of language that could amount to hate speech, and attacks on journalists in Liberia ahead of the general election.” Violent clashes between the Unity Party and the ruling CDC in September left two people dead and twenty injured in Foya, Lofa County.
As the National Electoral Commission (NEC) continues to investigate questions of electoral fraud, opposition leaders have questioned the validity of the NEC and the ruling party. During Weah’s presidency, several members were appointed to the board of commissioners who were perceived as potentially partisan. George Weah also refused to appoint any members from the opposition party, sparking censure from opposition candidates. In 2020, the death of several government auditors led to an increase in public mistrust. Though the US refused to intervene in the investigation, three senior members of Weah’s government were sanctioned for “involvement in public sector corruption.”
During the runoff, concerns about possible election tampering and corruption over the first round of voting spurred civil unrest. Opposition figures threatened physical violence if there was any indication that the election was rigged. Both candidates have called for peace amidst the runoff, and the CDC stated they would accept the final election results.
The Liberian Civil War
The 2023 presidential election occurred against the backdrop of the greatest political polarization since the fourteen-year Liberian civil war, though polarization is certainly not a new phenomenon in Liberia. Inter-group conflict has been a feature of Liberian politics since the country’s founding. Freed American slaves founded Liberia in the early 1800s, and in this new republic, the indigenous population and the descendants of former slaves were increasingly divided. Former enslaved Americans came to dominate political and economic institutions in Liberia, and interference by the U.S. government was a staple of Liberia’s political system during the 20th century. In the wake of mass riots in 1979, the U.S. backed Master Sergeant Samuel K. Doe’s military coup. Doe would lead a brutalist regime, serving as the precursor to a civil war that lasted over two decades.
In 1989, rebel forces led by Charles Taylor forcefully took over government rule. Doe’s regime would end in 1990, sparking civil war among several warring rebel factions.
The civil war ended on August 18, 2003, when the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed. Taylor was extradited to the Hague to face prosecution in Sierra Leone. He was convicted of eleven counts of war crimes and violations of international humanitarian law for atrocities committed under his regime. The CPA established a transition government and called for the establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) to address issues of impunity.
Though the TRC has made several recommendations to combat serious violations of international law and human rights abuses, the Liberian government has failed to implement recommendations. Recommendations include the creation of tribunals to try war criminals, prosecutions, sanctions, reparations, and memorialization. The Liberian Civil War continues to define governmental structure and domestic politics. Questions of government corruption, the state of democracy, and economic repair have been integral during this election. The next president will have a lot to contend with, including the gradual repair of Liberia’s economic and political structure.
What’s at stake?
The stakes of Liberia’s upcoming transfer of power are high. As the first close election since the civil war, the international community is waiting in anticipation to see whether a representative government can survive in Liberia. The election was heavily influenced by growing concerns in Liberia over falling living standards, endemic corruption, and a continued failure to establish tribunals to try individuals accused of war crimes, which remain salient issues.
George Weah’s concession of the election signals hope for Liberia’s democratic system. As the new president, Joseph Boakai will have to face a polarized and largely disillusioned electorate. As Liberia undergoes a successful transfer of power between parties, international observers should continue to watch for a signal about the state of democracy in the war-torn West African nation.