Continuation of the Status Quo?: The Taiwanese Presidential Election
The Republic of China, more commonly known as Taiwan, held its presidential and legislative election on January 13th. The election of the current Vice President Lai Ching-Te to the presidential office marks the third consecutive term for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a victory that awards the DPP with the longest stretch of single-party control over the presidency since Taiwan’s democratization after defeating Kuomintang’s (KMT) Hou Yu-ih and Taiwan People Party’s (TPP) Ko Wen-je.
Lai’s victory represents a continuation of a flourishing liberal democracy in mainland China’s backyard, one that comes at a time of increasing political and economic tensions between the United States, Taiwan, and China. While President-elect Lai’s win does not represent a significant shift in Taiwanese foreign policy from the past eight years, he and his party’s firm stance on increasing ties with the West, bolstering Taiwan’s military readiness, and reducing economic dependence on the mainland comes at a time of heightened interest by China in cross-strait relations.
Heritage and Tensions
Similar to the way the Chinese government framed the election as a choice between “war and peace,” differing attitudes towards an increasingly assertive mainland government were the main focus of this election, rooted in the parties’ varying histories. The politically conservative KMT, also known as the Chinese Nationalist Party, had by far the strongest ties to mainland China. Under Chiang Kai-Shek’s authoritarian leadership, the party ruled China for 21 years, before retreating to Taiwan after losing the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Despite its defeat, the KMT maintained its status as the sole political party until democratization in 1991. Primarily led by “Waishengren,” descendants of Chinese settlers who migrated pre-1895 cessation to the Japanese, the KMT’s rule was marked by rapid economic growth as well as political repression as the party repressed “left-wing” political activities and parties and enforced strict martial law.
It was during this period of political repression that the DPP formed its political identity. Amidst a declining Waishengen population, increased resistance to political repression, the death of Chaing Kai-Shek, and a growing Taiwanese identity, the DPP was founded in 1986 as the first opposition party. The DPP’s younger support base, born in the aftermath of the Chinese Civil War, lacked the ties to the mainland of the older support base of the KMT, leading the DPP to adopt positions that favored Taiwanese independence as a separate entity from China.
From the DPP’s origins, it is not hard to see why the DPP remains the most antagonistic in relations with China, with President-elect Lai describing himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence.” The DPP views recognizing any claims to Taiwan by China as a non-starter, one of the conditions imposed by China to reopen talks. In contrast, the KMT supports restarting talks and increasing diplomatic standing with China, policies that make them the most “pro-Chinese” political party on the island.
While international observers viewed foreign policy as the largest area of differentiation between the parties, domestic policy concerns were still at the forefront of the election. Some major issues include the DPP’s continuing focus on socioeconomic policies with President-elect Lai publishing a manifesto, “The National Project of Hope,” that lays out the DPP’s focus on the cost of living crisis, Taiwan’s demographic shift, and social justice initiatives. In addition, the DPP is focused on eliminating Taiwan’s usage of nuclear power and will be committed to developing alternative energy sources in the coming years. For the KMT, their domestic platform targets areas that the previous administration neglected, notably expanding Taiwan’s eldercare, increasing housing loans, reopening a fourth nuclear power station, and expanding child care services.
International Reactions
To the mainland Chinese government, the election of the DPP for a third consecutive term was perhaps the least favorable outcome. The election of the KMT may have led to a softer policy toward China and a potential restart of reunification talks. The Taiwanese government has accused China of interfering in its election to court voters toward the KMT through the weaponization of religious leaders, media institutions, and diplomatic threats.
These threats have materialized in the form of suspended tariff cuts in late December for Taiwanese companies under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, the primary trade deal between Taiwan and the mainland. In addition, the withdrawal of recognition by Narau on January 15, the investigation into Taiwanese imports from China, and other diplomatic maneuverings by China to isolate Taiwan further may intensify through President-elect Lai’s term if he remains firm in his anti-Chinese rhetoric.
However, Taiwan’s primary fear regarding cross-strait relations remains the threat of military invasion. While no major military exercises have been conducted by China, a common intimidation tactic during times of increased relations with the West, reports of heightened aircraft patrols, increased military balloon sightings, and threats of reunification have occurred. Defense experts predict a continued increase in Chinese military investment and capabilities as Chinese President Xi pursues a policy of reunification by the end of the decade. While the election of the DPP does not represent a significant departure from current cross-strait relations, increased Chinese ambitions in the coming decade may further threaten stability in the region.
Although the United States maintains the official diplomatic stance of non-recognition, it remains militarily dedicated to the defense of Taiwan. In the event of war, the United States and other allies in the Indo-Pacific such as the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Australia could jump to Taiwan’s aid. The election of the DPP will further increase Taiwanese defense integration with Western allies, with President-elect Lai supporting increasing reservists, procuring more military equipment, and expanding defense spending. While it remains to be seen if these initiatives can pass in the legislature, the DPP’s victory ensures Taiwan and the West will remain a thorn in China’s side for the foreseeable future.
An Uncertain Future Ahead
The DPP’s third straight term is a historic first for the island. While the presidential elections imply a strengthening grip on power, this election was marked by the emergence of the TPP as a major player in Taiwan’s election, capturing the largest third-party share of the presidential vote at 26.5% since 2000. The TPP positioned itself as an outsider to both the DPP and the KMT, especially as the DPP continues to entrench itself further into the political establishment of Taiwan. Utilizing populist rhetoric, the TPP may continue to rise in voter base as it seeks to gain support from those younger and disenfranchised voters from the two-party system present since democratization. The rise of a third party could threaten the establishment DPP and KMT and influence future presidential and legislative elections, as well as posing as a “kingmaker” for any legislative ambitions.
The future of Taiwan remains uncertain, given both external and internal pressures. The reelection of the DPP, while continuing status-quo cross-strait relations, may incur further friction with the Chinese government, especially as China pursues reunification plans more aggressively. Additionally, with further solidification of the DPP as Taiwan’s major political establishment, rising discontent may significantly disrupt Taiwanese politics with the TPP’s emergence as a major player. It remains to be seen if the DPP’s policies will come into conflict with China or the changing electorate, but whatever the coming years bring, the 2024 election will play a major role in Taiwan’s future.