The Fourth End of Thailand’s Unstoppable Shinawatra Family
Very few political legacies survive a coup and the military junta that follows. Even fewer survive two. The Shinawatras have been couped three times. Yet against all odds, the Shinawatra family came back for one more Thai election. What brings them down this time might be the work of their own doing.
In May, the Shinawatra-supported Pheu Thai party, which was previously ousted from power three times by the pro-Junta factions, joined forces with the very parties that supported their ousting. Recently, the groups formed a 15-party coalition led by the current Prime Minister and Pheu Thai member Srettha Thavisin, a strong ally of the Shinawatra family. This decision shocked the Thai political scene and marked a significant shift from the family's original political goals established during Thaksin Shinawatra's rise to power.
Going back to the 2001 Thai elections, Thaksin Shinawatra, a member of one of Thailand’s richest families, founded an important new electoral party: the Thai Rak Thai (“Thais Love Thais”) Party. This centrist populist party won their first election by gaining the favor of rural areas. They capitalized on their strong election result by providing increased access to education and healthcare. In the next elections in 2005, Thai Rak Thai (TRT) won the first absolute majority in Thai history.
However, in the next year, Thaksin’s government became embroiled in scandal. These included controversial Shinawatra family business dealings, as well as an incident where an influential protest leader accused Thanskin of using a Khmer black magic shaman to hire someone to destroy a sacred golden Hindu statue with a hammer. This resulted in large anti-government protests headed by a pro-monarchy political group, commonly known as the “Yellow Shirts,” who accused Thaksin of corruption and being anti-monarchy. In an attempt to diffuse the looming political crisis, Thaksin dissolved the parliament and called for new elections.
The main opposition party at the time, the Democrat Party, called for election boycotts and asked the king to intervene. Though TRT won, nearly 40% of the votes were invalid or blank. Thai King Rama IX called the elections undemocratic, and the Constitutional Court declared the election invalid, instituting new elections. These elections, however, would never occur. On the 19th of September, the Thai military moved into Bangkok, declared martial law, and dissolved the government, arresting Thaksin and installing a military junta.
After outlawing Thai Rak Thai and exiling Thaksin, new elections were finally called in 2007. Voters immediately put the TRT successor party back into power and let Thaksin return to Thailand. Following the election, mass protests by both anti-Thaksin “Yellow Shirt” protesters and pro-Thaksin “Red Shirt” counter-protesters began to intensify. In December 2007, the Thai Constitutional Court voted to dissolve this party on electoral fraud charges, an act which was commonly referred to as a judicial coup. Over the next three years, Thaksin's supporters protested the military en masse, leading to a crackdown resulting in over 75 deaths.
Ahead of the 2014 elections, Thanskin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, took up the mantle, running as yet another successor of the TRT, the Pheu Thai Party. The Pheu Thai Party went on to win an absolute majority, and Yingluck became the first female Thai Prime Minister. However, after a year of large-scale Yellow Shirt protests, Yingluck called for new elections, hoping to resolve the crisis. Again, election boycotts rocked the nation, and the Constitutional Court ruled the election unconstitutional. In a somewhat predictable demise for a twice-couped political party, on May 22, 2014, tanks rolled into Bangkok, detained Yingluck, and dissolved parliament. The military granted itself sweeping power and a new constitution was created. When they called new elections in 2019, many considered the election unfair after royal interference, and the Thai military won a narrow victory. This led to the largest Thai protest since the 2014 coup, driven by an angry student movement, with the goal of limiting the monarchy and military’s power. However, after the Constitutional Court ruled that calling for royal reforms was illegal, a “severe state of emergency” was declared, and the protesters were dispersed.
When the national election was held in May 2023, an unexpected result occurred. Though the Pheu Thai Party, now led by Thanksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, had been polling up to 50% of the vote (a 32-point margin of victory) in the weeks prior, they did not win the elections, and neither did the pro-military parties. By a 10-point margin, Pheu Thai’s main ally, the Move Forward Party, ended up on top. Move Forward, headed by Harvard-educated millionaire Pita “Tim” Limjaroenrat, won a shocking victory driven by many young urban voters disillusioned by decades of military and monarchy rule. Yet unlike Pheu Thai, Move Forward leaders have publicly adopted anti-military positions. In fact, the Constitutional Court had previously banned Move Forward’s predecessor, in what most believe was retaliation for its vocal anti-military position.
Pheu Thai and Move Forward agree on many issues, from legalizing same-sex marriage to raising the minimum wage to decriminalizing sex work. However, the main policy difference between the two–and the reason for Move Forward’s upset win–is one large issue: reformation of the Lèse-majesté laws, which forbid criticism of the powerful Thai royal family. These laws are some of the strictest of their kind, and in the last two decades, they have been strengthened and increasingly enforced. During the 2020-21 anti-government protests, many critics accused the government of using these laws to imprison pro-reform activists and stifle public opposition. While Pheu Thai has been hesitant to speak against these laws because they worry about facing yet another coup, Move Forward has rallied against lèse-majesté penalties and held firm in promising to reform the scope and punishments or abolish the laws completely.
Yet despite the landslide win from the anti-Junta coalition, there was still one major barrier in Pita’s path to the Prime Minister job: Thai elections are rigged. Out of the 750 parliamentarians, 250 are now appointed by the Thai military. That means in order to win, the anti-Junta coalition needs not 50% of the vote, but over 75%. Despite their electoral victory, Pita’s bid for PM was defeated. Throughout this process, Pheu Thai continuously supported Move Forward’s bid for government leadership. However, once Pita's bid was unsuccessful, Pheu Thai recognized an opportunity to reassert their influence. In August 2023, Pheu announced they had formed a coalition with the very parties they had long stood against.
This controversial decision may doom the Pheu Thai party. A new poll released on August 25th has the Move Forward party with an astounding 62% of the vote. Backlash toward Pheu Thai for their perceived betrayal has plummeted public opinion and the party has fallen to an all-time low of 12.9% in the polls despite holding the Prime Minister position. It remains to be seen how, if at all, Pheu Thai will manage to keep their promises of anti-Junta reform while working with the interests of their pro-military allies. However, the tide of change keeps rolling in Thailand, and when Thai voters go to the ballot box next, they very well may opt to leave Pheu Thai behind and move forward instead.