Build Back… What? Evaluating Biden’s Legislative Record

President Joe Biden wanted to go big—and bipartisan. Weeks after being sworn in, Biden signed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP) into law. His success in passing partisan legislation did not extend much further. Two centrist Senate Democrats axed the bulk of a broader agenda that ranged from a $4 trillion expansion of the social safety net to gerrymandering reform. Despite these setbacks, Biden has enjoyed success in enacting laws that were narrow enough in scope to secure ten Republicans to break a filibuster. Yet even watered-down compromises have failed to deliver on many of the president’s critical priorities. These ups and downs mean Biden’s legislative record can be simultaneously viewed as a success and failure through both a partisan and bipartisan lens. 

Judged against modern standards of presidential success and what has historically been possible with razor-thin majorities, the scale of partisan legislation Democrats have managed to pass is remarkable. The ARP featured a poverty-cutting–albeit temporary–child tax credit, generous healthcare subsidies, and hundreds of billions in state and local aid. After the relatively painless passage of this massive bill, Biden believed he could convince Democrats to pass further trillions in funding and even abolish the filibuster to enact party priorities like codifying Roe v. Wade.

Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) disabused Biden of this fantasy. They refused to support modifying the filibuster or moving Biden’s spending proposals through the filibuster-proof reconciliation process. Eventually, Democrats did manage to pass $370 billion in climate spending that constitutes a major boost to Biden’s climate goal. However, this sum is paltry compared to the president’s early standard for success.

Despite struggling to unite his own party, Biden found success in reaching across the aisle. Several bipartisan laws, like half a trillion dollars in new funding for infrastructure projects, mark a significant investment in Biden’s vision for America. While some measures have been supported by 60 senators for years, others have constituted major breakthroughs on issues without much apparent common ground. The passage of a compromise on an issue like gun control is an achievement Biden can boast about, considering such a settlement has long failed to materialize. 

Securing Republican votes comes at a price. Biden has yet to garner enough votes to approve $10 billion for COVID-19 vaccines and treatments. Negotiations on police reform died, and compromise remains squarely out of reach on abortion rights. Even settlements that have been reached on high salience issues like gun control pale in scope compared to the Biden-supported background checks legislation and assault weapons ban that could have moved without the filibuster. 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has made clear that he is only willing to give his blessing to compromises if Democrats decline to act unilaterally. McConnell ominously threatened a “100-car pileup” on the Senate floor if Democrats were to eliminate the filibuster. By backing bipartisan bills, McConnell and Republicans portrayed themselves as reasonable to moderate Democrats. Cooperation undercuts progressive claims that Republicans are bad faith actors who should be cut out of discussions. 

Biden won the presidency by claiming that he would both return bipartisanship to Washington and usher in generational policy change. With such slim majorities, he was never going to be able to get both. Partisan legislation alienates the minority and erodes their incentive to help pass bipartisan legislation, and bipartisan legislation limits the political will to go it alone on partisan priorities. Complex dynamics are responsible for the complicated outcomes Biden has overseen in Congress. Consequently, his legislative legacy should not be judged as purely bipartisan or partisan, nor should it be considered successful or unsuccessful. 

Of course, the President still has at least two years left in the White House. This November, Democrats may retain control of the House of Representatives and pick up two seats in the Senate, potentially unlocking passage of Biden’s original ambitions. However, pundits believe it is far likelier that Democrats will lose control of at least one chamber of Congress. Any partisan or bipartisan successes Democrats have enjoyed thus far were enabled by Democratic control of the floor in both chambers. Aside from bringing about the certain death of partisan priorities, a more extreme Republican House would almost certainly decline to approve any bills Democrats could pass by their Senate counterparts. Even essential legislation funding the government and raising the debt ceiling would be a heavy lift. 

Barring a historic midterm performance, Biden and his party’s window to pass their agenda is likely soon closing for the foreseeable future. The dynamics laid out here will dictate which of their priorities will pass in the next few months and which will languish for years to come. With the filibuster intact, the political will to pass another reconciliation bill will almost certainly fail to materialize in the upcoming lame duck session. This unlocks the possibility for a bipartisan session that includes passing policy-packed defense and spending bills and reforms to prevent another January 6th. Major accomplishments–depending on who you ask.