Midterm Watch: Top Issues for Georgia Voters ahead of the 2022 Midterm Elections

In anticipation of the 2022 midterm elections, voters across the country are beginning to sort their political priorities as they prepare to head to the polls. To a degree, the 2022 elections feel like a moment of reckoning for voters and the country. Both the 2016 and the 2020 elections were dramatic, to say the least, and many voters are now asking their representatives in government what the future holds. The voters of Georgia hold a unique role on the national stage. The 1976 presidential election, between Democratic former Georgia governor Jimmy Carter and Republican incumbent President Gerald Ford, fell 66.7% to 33.0% in Carter’s favor. When Carter ran for re-election in 1980, ultimately losing on the national stage, the split was 55.8% to 41.0% in Carter’s favor. Since then, the margins have narrowed significantly. In every election year since 1992, Georgians voted to put a Republican in the White House, ultimately culminating in the 2016 election in which Georgia voters voted 51.3% to 45.6% for former President Donald Trump. What was once a state voting on the heels of Democratic President Carter, voted in 2016 for a candidate who could not be more different.  

The verdict on whether Georgians were satisfied with their 2016 choice is still out. Undeniably, the Trump years were anything but smooth. Two years after the 2020 election, in which Georgia voters favored now-President Joe Biden 49.5% to 49.3%, Georgia voters have concerns about a variety of diverse and contentious issues. As the statewide and local campaigns have played out over primary season and in the general election, abortion, crime, education, inflation, and taxes have become five of the key issues in Georgia. As Georgians head to the polls, I will take a look at two differing issues, both by topic and the amount of coverage they have received in this election cycle: taxes and abortion.

Taxes

Taking front and center stage is the Georgia Income Tax bill. The bill, which was approved with large bipartisan majorities in the State Legislature and signed by Republican Governor Brian Kemp in March, plans to credit taxpayers for their 2020 and 2021 payments. House Bill 1302, signed on March 23, 2022, will refund Georgia taxpayers a total of $1.1 billion, coming in the form of $375 for single filers and up to $500 for jointly filing married couples. Georgia Public Broadcasting reports that those who filed a 2020 or 2021 tax return can expect a payment, and Georgia voters are calling loud and clear for relief on the tax front. Crucially, HB 1302 passed 148-18 with 13 non-voters or abstentions in the Georgia House of Representatives and 47-4 in the final Senate vote, indicating that Republicans and Democratic alike sought to prioritize relief for Georgia families in light of more than two years of pandemic-related economic distress. 

Another historic piece of legislation, House Bill 1437, cuts Georgia’s income tax rate from 5.75% to 4.99%. HB 1437 is the largest income tax cut in state history. Effective as of April 26, HB 1437 also passed with large majorities in both the State House and Senate, a telling sign that Republican and Democratic legislators alike are keenly aware of Georgia’s voters’ preferences and the financial pressure they feel ahead of the midterm elections.  

The tax issue plays a critical role in the race for governor between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams, a rematch of the 2018 gubernatorial election. Abrams is taking a more neutral stance on many issues that she came out strongly in favor or against in 2018 possibly to garner more widespread support. In 2018, Abrams opposed the state tax cut proposed by former Georgia Governor Nathan Deal, then later clarified to say she would not repeal the bill if elected governor. Likely, Abrams recognized that in order to win both Republican and Democrat support she would need to appear more neutral on controversial issues. This time around, Abrams has so far declined to publicly support or oppose HB 1437.  

Abortion

While taxes have taken the economic heart of the midterm elections, abortion takes social and political center-stage. While only 5% of Georgia voters identified abortion as their top midterm concern, close to half of respondents to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) poll indicated that they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the protection of the right to abortion. Some political analysts suggest that the United States Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision back in July will play an integral role in shifting the Georgia’s voter’s stance on abortion. The AJC report shows that 48% of the respondents to the poll, conducted September 5 to 16, “are more likely to back a candidate who would support abortion rights” compared to the 42% reported in the pre-Dobbs decision in early July. However, the numbers must not only be taken at face value. Georgia Republicans and Democrats remain split on the issue. The same AJC report shows that 47% of Republicans are likely to vote for a candidate who wants to limit abortion. Ultimately, abortion serves as a motivator across the nation, but we will have to see how Georgians respond at the ballot-box.

The Split-Ticket

Some following the Georgia midterms may be mystified by a Democrat’s lead in the Georgia Senate race, all the while a Republican holds a solid lead in the Gubernatorial contest. A September 28 poll average from FiveThirtyEight politics shows Kemp at 50.8% compared to Abrams’ 44.6%, a +6.2% margin in Kemp’s favor. The Senate race, on the other hand, narrowly falls in Democrat Raphael Warnock’s favor 47.3% to 45.2%. Factors influencing Georgia voters behavior include concerns over Herschel Walker’s controversial character and past and even Abrams’ progressive politics, which many think is too progressive for Georgia. It is possible to suggest, alternatively, that Georgians are carefully picking their candidates for policy-specific reasons. It is very possible that Georgians would prefer to have more conservative-leaning representatives on the state level while sending more moderate candidates to Washington. 

Incumbency continues to be a crucial factor in election outcomes, and Republican Governor Kemp and Democratic Senator Warnock both hold the incumbent seats for their respective races. FiveThirtyEight reports that incumbency, though not as strong as it once was, still has influence especially for relatively popular candidates like Kemp and Warnock. FiveThirtyEight identifies the key to Warnock’s victory as securing a small but solid segment of Kemp’s voters. The Albany Herald, alternatively, identifies the female vote as key for Warnock’s victory. Certainly, it is unlikely that any candidate will win their race by large margins, but many signs point to a split ticket in Georgia. 

Looking Ahead

The key takeaway in anticipation of the midterm is that the races will be painstakingly close. While divisive issues will factor into voters’ decisions, they will not necessarily be make-or-break for one side of the aisle or the other. Following recent election results, Georgia has been dubbed as a swing state. Time will tell if the state lives up to its newfound title in November.