Political Volte-Face: The Rise of Party Switching in U.S. Politics
When Atlanta lawmaker Mesha Mainor was reelected to Georgia’s 56th State House District in 2022, she campaigned and won as a Democrat. Less than a year into her term, Mainor defected from the Democratic Party and registered as a Republican. Following her switch, Mainor is now the sole Black GOP member among Georgia’s 236 state lawmakers. She is one of nearly 50 state legislators who have switched party affiliations since 2020, 24 of whom made the switch from one major party to the other. As party switching increases, constituents are raising questions about the strategic reasoning behind such a dramatic political tactic.
Historically, Georgia has been a political epicenter for party switching. Since 1994, Georgia saw the third-highest number of state legislator party switches among all states, resulting in a new independent and new Democrat, and 13 new Republicans. One of the reasons Georgia sees so many defections to the GOP may be due to its history as a swing state. Although Democrats won the Presidential vote and both senator's seats in Georgia last cycle, Republicans still have a popular advantage at the local level in a state where GOP gerrymandering is high.
Among other states, the party switching trend also tends to benefit the GOP. Among the 47 state legislators who have switched party affiliations since 2020, 15 have broken ranks to join the Republican party. 18 have become Independents, nine have joined the Democrats, and five have registered for other parties. Despite a few notable federal examples, such as Representative Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ) abandoning the Democrats to vote against Trump’s impeachment in 2019, switching is largely a state-level phenomenon. Party switching is likely more common at the state level due to the unique dynamics of state politics, where lawmakers are in close contact with their voting populations and use strategic local alliances to get ahead. In closely contested states, a sudden switch can help Republicans achieve supermajorities and veto override power overnight. One prominent example is Representative Tricia Cotham (R-NC), whose defection to the GOP last April gave North Carolina Republicans the House supermajority needed to enact a 12-week ban on abortions over Democratic Governor Roy Cooper’s veto.
Cotham’s reasons for leaving the Democratic party and joining the Republican ranks remain confusing in the eyes of many voters and political analysts. She stated at a press conference that the party she once championed had “become unrecognizable,” but left out specific reasons for supporting the GOP. Such ambiguity is common among her party switching contemporaries. In analyzing trends among dozens of party switchers over the past four years, three reasons emerge that illuminate why a politician switches parties: benefits of majority membership, political self-preservation, and ideological shifts.
Opportunism partially explains why a lawmaker would switch parties: to reap the benefits of being in the majority. In recent decades, the U.S. has experienced increased polarity between the major political parties. With red states more conservative than ever and blue states becoming more liberal, the number of swing states has fallen. Consequently, power has become concentrated in the hands of the majority while minority party members have lost influence. State legislators who have switched to the GOP in red states may enjoy improved resources, coalition building, and favorable committee assignments long after making the switch. For example, State Senator Glenn Jeffries (R-WV) turned to the Republican party in 2022, at a time when the GOP enjoyed a large majority in the West Virginia state senate. Similarly, State Senator Kevin Priola (D-CO) joined the Democratic ranks in 2022, when Democrats held a significant majority in the Colorado state senate. By uniting with the “winning” team, these senators strategically align themselves with the party that holds the most power in their state.
If lawmakers find themselves dependent on a constituency that no longer shares their values, switching parties may allow them to stay afloat in a competitive political landscape. A 2023 Gallup poll revealed how social and economic conservatism is at a ten-year high, likely because hot-button issues such as abortion and transgender rights are fostering a more conservative culture. Research suggests that conservative legislation is making more headway in red states. When the public tides shift towards conservatism, local politicians may be more incentivized to follow. This could explain why many lawmakers are turning to the GOP for political survival, especially in swing states like Georgia. However, it remains unclear whether switching to the majority is an effective self-preservation strategy. In some cases, as with former Georgia representative Amy Carter (R-GA), switching to the GOP proved extremely useful as she won her first election as a Republican by a landslide in 2012, then proceeded to win another two terms unopposed in 2014 and 2016. However, the same cannot be said of former Georgia representative Doug McKillip (R-GA), whose switch to the GOP in 2010 proved fatal for his political career. McKillip, who had previously been chosen to serve as minority caucus leader for the Georgia Democrats, lost the Republican primary in 2012 following his switch, a defeat which came after three consecutive successful elections as a Democrat.
Switching political parties may simply be a way to align oneself with deep-seated moral values that are not being upheld by one’s current party. Representative William Marsh (D-NH) broke ranks with Republicans in his state because he disagreed with their stance on vaccine mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic. With his background in public health and medicine, Marsh said in a statement that he is “a doctor first,” and no longer identified with the extreme right members of his party. Similarly, there is a trend among Democrats who feel disrespected by their fellow party members, and turn to the opposing team for support. In a statement posted to his Facebook page, Representative David Pritt (R-WV) blamed West Virginian Democrats for acting intolerantly towards members with traditional values. “We are being pushed out,” wrote Pritt to his followers. His sentiments mirror those made by Mainor (R-GA) and Cotham (R-NC), who both complained of ostracization from the Democratic base. Mainor, who had a history of ideological tension with her more radical Democratic peers, says she felt “publicly slandered.” Cotham similarly blamed Democrats for being intolerant towards conflicting viewpoints. “They will try to bully you. They will try to cast you aside,” she said of the party’s behavior towards dissenters. Increasing polarization likely plays a role in these feelings of ideological exclusion. As Democratic party values become more extreme, moderate members like Pritt, Mainor, and Cotham may find it more difficult to justify their membership.
If the past four years were any indication, the 2024 election cycle will propel an entirely new wave of party switching at the state level. Particularly in swing states like Georgia, the influx of new Republicans may prove useful in getting tough conservative legislation passed. Legislative issues such as abortion, the climate crisis, transgender rights, and education programs will undoubtedly be affected. Furthermore, questions remain about the consequences that frequent defections may have for voting patterns and people’s trust in elected officials. As the GOP continues to benefit from these patterns of defection, Democrats may be forced to reevaluate how they garner and maintain loyalty among their more conservative members.