“No Comment:” China on Ukraine
The G7 and Saudi Peace Talks
On September 12th, the Group of Seven, a coalition of seven democratic countries that meet annually to discuss international issues, called for China to urge Russia to stop its assault on Ukraine. The statement came after 40 countries gathered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in August to discuss a potential resolution to the crisis. During this meeting, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi told Russian diplomats that Beijing is “impartial” regarding the war in Ukraine. The comment opens up the possibility for China to serve as a mediator. Parties on both sides of the war have expressed support for China’s inclusion. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called China’s inclusion “a super breakthrough,” while Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia “highly endorses” China’s participation. Conversely, Xi’s visit to Moscow in March, days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin, was perceived negatively by the United States and some European allies as a “stark show of support for the increasingly isolated Putin.”
The international community is in a quandary over how to perceive China’s growing relationship with Russia. By staying impartial, the chance for mediation remains, but the lack of condemnation sparks other questions. Will China serve as an impartial mediator, a Russian ally, or both?
China and Russia: Alliance for the new age?
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, diplomatic ties between Russia and China have strengthened substantially, including a recent increase in trade relations. Nicole Hong, a New York Times reporter, describes the partnership as being “fueled by a shared goal of trying to weaken American power.”
In the 1950s, the People's Republic of China was economically dependent on the Soviet Union. After the Chinese Civil War, the Soviet Union sent 11,000 military, economic, and political experts to help China rebuild. The two communist regimes built an alliance predicated on economic cooperation.
However, economic cooperation did not mean that relations between the two communist nations were always friendly. Following the death of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, China and Russia became adversaries, as China’s belief in Stalinist thought was challenged by Kruschev’s program of de-Stalinization. In 1961, ideological and geopolitical tensions reached a breaking point, and the Sino-Soviet alliance officially split. Border skirmishes between the People’s Republic and the Soviet Union became commonplace.
Relations would ease in the 1980s. Under Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev, the door was opened for Sino-Russian rapprochement through closer economic ties. In 1989, Gorbachev and Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping agreed to foster good relations at a historic first meeting since the Sino-Soviet split. The normalization of the relationship continued after the fall of the Soviet Union, and in 2001, Russia and China signed the Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, “agreeing not to use nuclear weapons against each other and pledging to strengthen cooperation.”
Economic Ties
While China and Russia lack a formalized alliance or defense pact, economic relations have become increasingly interlinked over the past decade. Economic relations began to drastically increase after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. With China’s economic support, Russia was able to evade United States sanctions.
Over the last year, Sino-Russian trade has seen the biggest increase in history. From January to May of this year, bilateral trade grew by 40.7% compared to last year, totaling more than $93.8 billion. Meanwhile, trade between China and the United States has decreased by 12.3% over the past year.
Military Support and Disinformation
Though China has not supplied weapons to Russian forces, there are questions surrounding whether China would consider providing military support. In July, China imposed restrictions on long-range civilian drones out of concern they could possibly have military applications. The new drone policy followed a U.S. intelligence report that alleged Beijing was providing militarily-applicable equipment to the Russian Federation. The intelligence report cited Russian customs data which included Chinese military contractors supplying drones and navigation equipment. According to John K. Culver and Sara Kirchberger, senior fellows for the Atlantic Council, China has a strategic interest in the maintenance of the Putin regime. Favorable Sino-Russian relations have enabled China to “focus on military modernization on naval, rather than land” capabilities. Since China and Russia share a 4,200-kilometer border, China’s current military strategy hinges on a peaceful land border with the Russian Federation.
Though China has remained “impartial” on the Ukraine question, China has supported the Russian narrative of NATO instigation. Putin has alleged NATO’s purpose is to destroy the Russian Federation, arguing NATO is building a world based “only in the interests of just one country, the United States.” According to Bret Schafer, an analyst who tracks disinformation for the Alliance for Securing Democracy, “Russia and China have long shared distrust and animosity toward the west,” and it appears China has “parroted some pretty specific and in some cases pretty far-fetched claims from Russia.” China’s propagandist campaign has supported Russian claims that they are fighting Nazi violence in Ukraine using doctored photos. On X, formerly known as Twitter, Chinese officials used the word 'Nazi' more during the first 6 weeks of the war in Ukraine than they had over the prior six months, according to the Alliance for Securing Democracy.
Cooperation over disinformation traces back over a decade. In 2013, during Xi’s first trip to Moscow, he pledged to expand ties between Russian and Chinese state media. Since the pledge, both countries have signed dozens of cooperative contracts between state media organizations.
Since the war in Ukraine began, China’s disinformation campaigns run by state media seem to contradict official diplomatic statements. The continuous media campaign of anti-West sentiment has led officials to question China’s intentions in its burgeoning alliance with Russia.
The Taiwan Connection
China’s silence on the Ukraine invasion, while potentially an avenue for diplomacy, also symbolizes a growing adversarial alliance. For the Chinese Communist Party, the United States represents a hegemonic force that seeks to prevent competitors from gaining geopolitical and economic power. This sentiment became clear during a speech at China's National People’s Congress on March 6th, where Xi claimed that “Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-around containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.”
The international community is watching the Ukraine conflict closely. Beyond the threat of a Russian-NATO war, the Ukraine conflict will have strategic implications for other territorially contentious regions. Political theorists are worried about the heightened risk of a U.S.-China war in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. Specifically, the relationship between China and Russia during the Ukraine invasion provides insight into a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Military activity surrounding Taiwan and the South China Sea is at an all-time high. On September 17, China’s military sent 103 warplanes toward Taiwan. When questioned about the incursion, Mao Ning, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, stated there is no “median line,” since Taiwan is part of Chinese territory. Experts worry that China’s refusal to condemn Russia is, in part, because of their desire to invade Taiwan. Whether the international community's response to the Ukraine invasion affects China’s decision to invade Taiwan will likely remain a mystery.
Implications for Ukraine
For Ukraine, China persuading Russia to end its assault may be the only hope. Putin continues to prolong the conflict amid heavy casualties and debilitating sanctions. As a purportedly neutral party, China has the opportunity to serve as a mediator, helping resolve the war. However, some worry that China’s silence on Ukraine may be a precursor to larger strategic ambitions, including a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Even with fears about a burgeoning Sino-Russian alliance, China’s impartiality is a chance for resolution. The question remains: Will China successfully convince Russia to resolve the war in Ukraine?