When the Center Doesn’t Hold: Peru’s Establishment Has Collapsed—How Far Will it Fall?
Over the past decade, Peru has cycled through seven presidents, faced repeated constitutional crises, and seen its democratic institutions steadily erode. In 2021, the world expected the worst, as Peru’s second-round election pitted the socially conservative Marxist-Leninist Pedro Castillo against Keiko Fujimori, the daughter and defender of Peru’s jailed former despot, Alberto Fujimori. And after Castillo’s victory, three attempted impeachments and an attempted self-coup later, these fears have not come in vain. Four years later, as new elections loom, Peru’s political establishment remains in freefall. The country now stands at a crossroads: return to the establishment that has failed it, or embrace a new wave of radicalism that could reshape its future, or destabilize it further.
A new politician who has capitalized on this instability is the curious ultra-radical Antauro Humala, championed by many Peruvians who feel resentment and betrayal over the collapse of the Castillo presidency. Antauro, who had previously led an uprising against Fujimori’s father, was recently released from prison after attempting a rebellion against former President Toledo. He is the leader of the “Ethnocacerist Movement”, an indigenous ultranationalist movement that incorporates economic populism and militarism, calling for mass conscription and rallying against perceived foreign influence in Peru. The Ethnocacerists have been described by Vice as:
“Far left” or “fascist”... is an idiosyncratic mix of economic populism, xenophobia — especially towards Peru’s southern neighbor Chile — and the mythologizing of the supposed racial superiority of “copper skinned” Andeans. It also takes an old school machista view of women’s rights while Humala[‘s father], 89, has called for the summary shooting of homosexuals and corrupt officials.
Many Peruvians, especially indigenous Peruvians, suffering from high poverty rates and strong feelings of betrayal from establishment politicians have been attracted to the radical ideas of Antauro Humala. His rhetoric has resonated in a country where only 6% of rural households have access to all of piped indoor plumbing, electricity, and internet, and where economic growth has faltered to an average of just 0.8% GDP growth since 2017.
As the brother of the former centrist President Ollanta Humala, Antauro has strongly rejected Ollanta’s policies, claiming at a rally: “My mother gave birth to him, we came out of the same womb, but he betrayed us. Am I my brother? He betrayed, and he has to be shot.” While Antauro’s political party, A.N.T.A.U.R.O., was banned by the Supreme Court, Antauro has polled in the top-2 candidates of 4 of the last 5 polls, one by almost a full 8-point margin. While Peruvian prosecutors are currently attempting to prohibit Humala from running in 2026, his ideology, and influence, may be here to stay.
The major alternatives to Antauro have brought baggage to the table as well. Keiko Fujimori has been closely attached to the image of her father, and before his recent passing, had promised to pardon Alberto Fujimori, who was involved in numerous human rights abuses, including staging a coup of a democratically elected government, ordering the forced sterilization of 300,000 mostly indigenous Peruvians, and forming the “Grupo Colina”, a death squad which was reported to have massacred civilians. Another right-wing candidate, López Aliaga, had been investigated for chanting “Death to Castillo!” to rally goers before the 2021 election, and has gained notoriety in Peru for his opposition to vaccines, calling them “genocide.” The center-right economist Hernando de Soto, who had been originally favored to win in 2021, has been slipping in polls due to his age––he would be 90 at the end of his first term––and the liberal Sagasti, the former President of Peru, has been mangled between the vote splitting of multiple centrist alternatives.
Peru’s crisis is not new. Since 2000, six presidents have been imprisoned, and one committed suicide to avoid arrest. The 2021 election only intensified these fractures. Once in office, Castillo faced relentless obstruction from a belligerent Congress, dominated by Fujimoristas and remnants of establishment parties. When impeachment seemed imminent in December 2022, Castillo ordered the dissolution of Congress and attempted to form an emergency government. But when he failed to secure military support, he fled toward the Mexican embassy, and was arrested and jailed for rebellion and conspiracy.
With Castillo’s removal, his vice president, Dina Boluarte, ascended to the presidency. Mass pro-Castillo protests ensued from his supporters, and these protests, which were met with brutal police and military repression, resulting in the deaths of over 60 civilians, further deepening many Peruvians’ distrust in the government. In the months that followed, Peru found itself in a political deadlock. Boluarte, often viewed with little political legitimacy, relied heavily on the support of a right-wing Congress to stay in power. With opposition from all sides, Boluarte’s approval rating dropped as low as 3%, further fueling distrust, especially from the indigenous and rural voters who had voted for her and Castillo’s party. Let down by both the establishment and its alternative, many Peruvians have now turned towards a more desperate change.
The collapse of Peru's political center reflects a consequence of the failure of their political institutions. With each corruption trial, or incomplete modernization, public faith in institutions erodes further, creating space for increasingly extreme alternatives. As voters face a choice between unpopular establishment figures and radical outsiders promising dramatic change, Peru's future hangs in the balance. The outcome may determine not just the country's trajectory, but serve as a warning for other fragile democracies in the region.