Coalitions Collapsing: The Rightward Shift of Coalition Governments

This November, Israel heads to its fifth election in three years, constituting a record breaking amount of electoral activity in such a short period of time. The Israelis aren’t alone, with coalition government dissolutions occurring at increasing rates globally. As democratic politics become increasingly polarized on a global scale, governments are collapsing more often than they ever have. This past summer, Italy’s government dissolved followed by the collapse of Israel’s parliamentary coalition. Sweden’s government fell a year earlier. All three countries faced government dissolution, but only Italy saw the formation of a strong coalition while Israel and Sweden seem to be headed for an even weaker coalition government than before. Increasing polarization is having different implications for the long-term stability of governments in these three countries, strengthening coalitions in some while weakening them in others. In examining the events and aftermath of the Italian and Israeli coalition dissolution, the potential and pitfalls of  the impact of polarization on elections in coalition governments becomes clearly highlighted.

Both the Israeli and Italian governments operate on the Westminster Parliamentary model, in which governments are formed from several parties who can form a governing coalition on the basis of shared policy stances and aims. Unlike the United States, these governments create significant signals about government effectiveness through the ability to dissolve or shift coalitions, instituting elections early. Significant polarization of the electorate can lead to multiple elections occurring in short timespans, as deep fragmentation in the coalition reflects political fragmentation in a country. Government dissolution can have significant impacts. Consistent elections due to coalition dissolutions leads to increased polarization among the voting population. While democratic elections in the face of government failure may be a sign of democratic effectiveness, increased polarization also characterizes democratic erosion. 

In Italy, government dissolution led to an increase in the power of parties on the political right. The coalition had been rocky as the left-leaning Five Star Movement boycotted Draghi’s economic plan to reduce living costs. In July, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi called a parliamentary confidence vote to bolster the center-right coalition, only to be rejected by three coalition parties whose failure to vote in support of the coalition triggered the fall of the government. On September 25th, Italian citizens elected the most right-wing government since the Mussolini government of World War II, led by the Brothers of Italy party which has roots in neo-fascism. Following the collapse of the weak unity government of right and left wing parties, the right wing coalition of parties offered stability and backed one candidate for Prime Minister, appealing to voters dismayed by the country’s instability. 

Where Italy’s government dissolution led to a stronger coalition, the future is looking less certain for the Israeli and Swedish governments.  Following four elections and failed coalitions, Israel saw the formation of its last government, a fresh, more left-leaning government, with voters and politicians alike hoping it would last longer than its predecessors. However, the coalition parties had varied interests, which led to a weak coalition and eventual collapse in July. As Israel heads towards its fifth election in three years, parties are redefining themselves and entering new agreements in the hope that they will have power in a government that lasts for the full four-year term. Where Italy saw a large shift in electoral outcomes following their coalition dissolution, in Israel party gains have become “a game of inches,” with polls projecting only slight changes from the previous unsuccessful government. 

In 2021, the Swedish governmental coalition held a no-confidence vote on the Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, voting against the PM following gridlock over housing policy. Löfven chose to dissolve the governing coalition rather than rebuild it, sending Sweden to September elections that saw little electoral deviation from the 2018 election results. Sweden’s polarization strengthened previous electoral patterns, ensuring that neither left nor right wing parties could form coalitions on their own, while strengthening the right wing Swedish Democrats. Similar to the Brothers of Italy party, the Swedish Democrats campaigned on critiques of weak left-wing governing coalitions and promises to provide greater stability. The Moderate party under Andersson has built a minority government coalition that hinges on the support of the far right Swedish Democrats, forcing left-wing parties to shift their platforms. All the while, the right-wing Swedish Democrat party have engaged in increasingly xenophobic anti-immigrant rhetoric, normalizing such language in the political discourse while seeing greater political influence than in previous years. Israeli far-right parties such as Otzma Yehudit have also become increasingly mainstream, and are polling to receive more seats in the parliament than they did in previous parties. 

Increasing rates of government dissolution in parliamentary governments have led to a rise in polarization of the local population as increasingly extreme political rhetoric becomes normalized. This polarization in turn can lead to weak and polarized governments, in which deadlock between coalition member parties consistently lead to government dysfunction or dissolution. However, in the case of Italy, if polarization strengthens one end of the political spectrum rather than two opposing ends of the political spectrum, a narrower, stronger coalition can be formed. In Italy’s case, the government's dissolution strengthened the right end of the political spectrum, which may lead to a more robust coalition with shared policy objectives. In Israel and Sweden, consistent coalition breakdowns are not leading to the drastic voting shift that Italy saw, as neither side among the polarized parties see enough gains to produce a stable government. However, right-wing parties in each of the countries are gaining power through criticism of weak centrist coalitions. Is Italy’s one-sided polarization the future of recurrent Israeli and Swedish coalition collapse, or is it merely a product of low voter turnout in Italy’s September elections? Will the strengthened right-wing parties gain long term political power, or short term gains through critiques of prior governments? By paying attention to the electorate’s response to consistent government breakdown in each of these countries, we gain insight into potential future trends of polarization and their impact on coalition stability.