The Curious Case of Javier Milei: Will Argentina's October Presidential Elections Bring the World's First Ultra-Libertarian Leader?

Javier Milei, an outcast Argentinian candidate, is used to claims of eccentricity. Names of libertarian economists one might remember from class––Robert Lucas, Milton Friedman, and Murray Rothbard––are the namesakes of Milei’s dogs. Not just typical dogs, but ones that came from a $50,000 operation to clone his first dog, Conan, who Milei claimed helped him communicate with God. 

From economics professor to inflammatory National Deputy to founder of his own party, La Libertad Avanza––which he very may well head to the Argentinian Presidency this winter––Milei has championed many titles during his rapid rise to prominence. The Economist calls him a "minarchist," Axios, an "anarcho-capitalist," the Washington Post, "a new Trump," and El Pais, "the unclassifiable Argentine politician." And when asked about his views, Milei gives a simple answer: "The state is the enemy." 

Throughout the last 70 years, Argentinian politics has been dominated by an ideology known as "Peronism," named for the 1940s-50s President Juan Perón. Peronism is generally considered a syncretic blend of both left-wing and right-wing populist ideals, characterized by strong centralized leadership and state involvement in economic affairs, combined with heavy protectionism, economic regulations, and a strong welfare system. Since 1946, Peronists have won ten of the thirteen free presidential elections. 

During this time, Argentina has faced a period of economic decline. A hundred years ago, Argentina had a GDP per capita similar to that of a European nation, even surpassing France and Germany, and was considered one of the richest countries in the world. Today, their GDP is smaller than its more middle-income neighbors like Chile and Uruguay. Additionally, under its current Peronist president, Alberto Fernández, the country has faced rising inflation, which reached over 100% in 2023. As a result, Fernández's approval rating has fallen below 20%, and his political coalition, Unión por la Patria, received 27.27% of the vote in the August primary elections, the first time Peronists have ever fallen out of the top two spots in presidential primaries. 

Now, many Argentines are looking towards radical change to revitalize the Argentinian economy. For some, there's no more radical change from a large federal government than the exact opposite—welcome Javier Milei. Milei is proposing an economic revolution in Argentina. He’s promising to scrap the Argentine Peso to adopt the dollar, abolish the central bank, authorize vast privatization, including opening organ markets, as well as pledging to eliminate many tariffs and enact extreme government spending and tax cuts. This includes scrapping the public healthcare system, cutting all public salaries by 50%, and "dismantl[ing] the welfare state." Along with Milei's libertarianism, there is a deep sense of conservatism in his ideas. Milei has repeatedly rallied against "cultural Marxism," the legitimacy of climate change, abortion access, and sex education in schools. 

Initially viewed as a long-shot candidate with polls placing him in deep third place, Javier Milei experienced a dramatic last-minute surge before the primary elections, capturing 30% of the vote and clinching first place. Since then, he has catapulted to a large lead in polling before the election’s upcoming first round on October 22nd, leading every one of the seven polls since the primary elections, including by as much as double-digits. His opponents, the Peronist Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, and conservative Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich, have been scrambling to stop the bleeding, but are struggling to match his momentum. For Milei to win outright, he must either secure 45% of the vote or earn 40% while finishing more than 10 percentage points ahead of his closest competitor. Otherwise, a runoff will take place on November 19th. In both second-round polls conducted since the primaries, Milei has maintained a comfortable lead over both rivals, although he shows a notably stronger advantage over Massa. 

The rise of Javier Milei as a potentially transformative figure in Argentinian politics should not be underestimated. Libertarianism in South America has grown in the last decade but has yet to achieve any strong electoral victories. While libertarian movements in Brazil helped successfully oust President Dilma Rousseff and inspired new policies in Honduras, these relatively modest political gains for libertarians have been contrasted with electoral victories from more pro-large-government figures in the region, such as Gabriel Boric’s victory in Chile, Gustavo Petro’s in Columbia, Lula’s in Brazil, and Pedro Castillo’s in Peru. However, in Argentina, libertarianism might see its first major breakthrough. Milei’s blend of paleo-libertarianism has captured the imagination of an electorate weary of the persistent economic stagnation and inflation associated with their traditional political structures. At a time when the approval ratings of Argentina's incumbent leaders are falling and its people are clamoring for change, Milei presents an alternative that is as daring as it is fraught with uncertainties. With his striking political rhetoric, the debate he brings forth transcends the borders of Argentina and engages with broader questions about the role of the state, economic policy, and cultural narratives. 

Should he emerge victorious in the October elections, Milei could become the world’s first ultra-libertarian leader, initiating a socio-political experiment that would be watched with great interest, and perhaps anxiety, around the globe. Argentine markets already took a four percent hit after their primary elections, indicating investor skepticism toward a Milei presidency. 

It is unclear whether Milei's experiment would revitalize Argentina's stagnant economy or push it further into the abyss. A group of 170 influential economists have already warned about worsening hyperinflation and mass unemployment as a result of Milei's proposed policies. However, it's clear that his ascendancy marks a potential paradigm shift in Argentinian, if not global, politics. His controversial views and aggressive reform plans bring with them both immense promises of change to a struggling economy, but also enormous risk. It's evident that the upcoming October presidential elections will be a referendum on the status quo. Whether Argentina is ready to gamble its future on Milei's radical vision is a question whose answer could have repercussions far beyond the nation's borders.