A Crisis Leader: Jacinda Ardern’s Legacy
Quick! Name a New Zealand politician, past or present, who isn’t Jacinda Ardern.
If you’re drawing a blank, you’re not alone. Even after her surprise resignation this past January, Ardern remains “the most popular politician in New Zealand.” Google Trends data show that the global search volume for “Jacinda Ardern” (and name variants) far exceeds the combined volume of searches for every other New Zealand Prime Minister and opposition party leader from the last two decades. What explains Ardern’s fame, and will the same factors that make her a household name define her political legacy?
The tiny island nation of New Zealand, with a population smaller than the state of Minnesota, is perhaps best known to foreigners for its distinctive accent, Lord of the Rings franchise filming locations, and membership in the Commonwealth of Nations. But New Zealand’s election of Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister in 2017 brought outsized global attention to the country's politics, and demonstrated the crucial value of timing in becoming a political icon.
Ardern became PM against a backdrop of worldwide populist resurgence. Just before Ardern claimed the title of world’s youngest female head of state, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and the United States sent Donald Trump to the White House. In less high profile elections during the same year, Rodrigo Duterte, nicknamed “Donald Trump of the East,” became president of the Philippines, and Norbert Hofer, an anti-refugee, far-right candidate, came within striking distance of the Austrian presidency. An important part of Ardern’s legacy in global politics would come to be defined by the foil she provided to the political positions, rhetoric, and identities of these emerging populist voices.
Comparisons between Ardern and her populist world leader peers were apt and pervasive from the beginning. Calling her “the anti-Trump,” news outlets lauded Ardern’s charisma, compassion, and openess. Her deft use of social media (Ardern currently has over 1.7 million Instagram followers) signaled a youthfulness that stood in contrast to the rising age of other world leaders. Ardern became the second ever head of state to give birth while in office and was the first to bring a child to a United Nations General Assembly meeting. Ardern quickly came to represent a warm and empathetic, yet focused and resolved, leadership style, and in what was a deeply dissatisfying time for progressives worldwide, 'Jacindamania' offered an alternative to right-wing figures in the U.S. and elsewhere.
However, Ardern’s stardom was solidified in her response to tragedy and crisis. The 2019 Christchurch mosque shootings were the deadliest in New Zealand history, killing more than 50 worshippers. In the hours and days after the attack, Ardern condemned the shooter and took immediate action: she promised financial assistance to survivors and the families of victims, imposed temporary firearm purchase restrictions, and mere weeks later, ushered the near-unanimous passage of a semi-automatic weapons ban. New Zealand’s rapid policy response was widely contrasted to longstanding inaction on the issue of gun violence in the United States. Ardern received global praise for her leadership and American liberals looked toward New Zealand’s firearm policy with jealousy. Months later, Ardern guided New Zealand through its swift reaction to a deadly volcanic eruption that killed 22.
At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ardern led the way with early, strict policies intended to completely eliminate the virus. Public health experts have credited New Zealand’s COVID-19 strategies with saving thousands of lives: the country has endured only 2,500 COVID-19-related fatalities and has maintained the lowest mortality rate of any wealthy nation. Research has shown that during the first two years of the pandemic, New Zealand actually experienced fewer deaths than they averaged in the years pre-COVID. This gave New Zealand the largest negative cumulative excess mortality rate in the world and made them one of the only countries that saw a reduction in deaths after the onset of the pandemic.
To sell her extreme COVID-19 measures, Ardern relied on unifying rhetoric and constant communication with the public. In Facebook Live videos reminiscent of FDR’s fireside chats, Ardern created a relatable image of pandemic life by appearing in casual dress and laughing at unexpected interruptions from her toddler. She started referring to New Zealanders as a “team of 5 million” and expressed optimism about her government’s virus policies.
Despite Arden’s efforts, not everyone was convinced. Anger about the economic costs of strict lockdowns and disagreement with Ardern’s vaccine mandates caused unusual mass protest in New Zealand. Camps with thousands of upset citizens emerged outside Parliament. Adern was called a "murderer" at public events. Internationally, conservative figures like Tucker Carlson criticized and mocked her on live TV. Though she won reelection by a landslide in 2020––giving New Zealand Labour the first outright parliamentary majority held by any party since electoral reform in the early ‘90s––Ardern’s popularity slipped dramatically as the pandemic wore on. The New Zealand government abandoned their zero-virus strategy in late 2021 amid rising cases and pushback from a disillusioned public.
Criticism toward Ardern wasn’t new. Despite her popularity abroad, Ardern faced numerous political difficulties at home throughout her time as PM. Her attempts to increase Māori representation in Parliament were heavily scrutinized by the right. She was caught on a hot mic insulting a political rival. Courts questioned the legality of Ardern’s pandemic border policies. Crime rates swelled across New Zealand after lockdowns were lifted. Ardern proved unsuccessful at implementing many of her signature campaign proposals, including a promised 100,000 new homes to address the nation’s housing affordability crisis (scrapped because it was “overly ambitious”) and a greenhouse gas emissions reduction that never materialized. In the final weeks of Ardern’s leadership, Labour was blamed for increasing inflation and controversial attempts by New Zealand’s central bank to deliberately cause a recession as the global economy turned downward.
For New Zealanders, Ardern mostly failed to deliver the ‘transformational change’ she promised, but in the end, that probably won’t matter much. Ardern will be remembered as a “wartime” Prime Minister - one who guided New Zealand through some of the most tumultuous years in its history. In her two terms, she employed her strength as a communicator to manage crisis after crisis and become the most popular New Zealand PM in a century.
Though it seems reductive to define Ardern’s legacy simply in contrast to her head of state contemporaries, it’s impossible not to acknowledge the role that timing played in defining Ardern’s time as PM. For international observers, especially Americans, Ardern filled a void in global progressive leadership left behind by figures like Barack Obama. Her espousal of ‘kindness politics’ distinguished her leadership style from growing populist rhetoric and made Ardern a hero for the left.
If her recent keynote commencement speech at Harvard University is any indication, global appetite for Ardern’s presence remains strong. At only 42, she has decades of leadership ahead of her, and time to redefine her legacy, both in New Zealand and abroad. In her resignation, Ardern cited burnout and a desire to spend time with family as motivating her decision to step down from leadership for the remainder of her term as MP. While she hasn’t publicly announced what comes next for her, she will certainly have options.
As for the rest of the world, we certainly haven’t seen the last of Jacinda Ardern.