A New Era for Britain? Results of the 2024 UK General Election
When Rishi Sunak called a snap general election for July 4, most observers expected the decline of the Conservatives and a surge for Labour amidst floundering polls for the Conservatives. With Conservative leadership seen as responsible for a stagnating economy, increasing concerns about immigration, and broken and ineffective National Health Service (NHS), Labour seemed poised to take a majority in the House of Commons.As Britons returned from the polls, they soon bore witness to the largest UK General Election landslide in recent memory, propelling Labour leader Keir Starmer to the seat of Prime Minister and ending fourteen years of Conservative leadership.
While the election of Labour represents a profound shift by the British public away from the perceived failures of Conservative leadership, trends in the electorate reveal that British politics may not have taken as drastic a step to the left as many thought, owing to a historic reorganization of the British right. The rise of the populist right-wing Reform Party, the collapse of the Conservative Party, and the decline of the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) all pose significant impacts on the future of British politics, especially in a country that is still experiencing the same issues that led to the former government’s loss.
The snap election called by Rishi Sunak was a pivotal moment for the Conservatives, who had hoped to overcome increasingly-sour public approval. However, Labour capitalized on struggling Conservative polling. Labour picked up 211 seats in the election, pushing their total number of seats to 412 out of a total of 650. With a large majority secured in parliament, Keir Starmer and the rest of the party will have few obstacles in place from passing policies that aim to reverse over a decade of Conservative rule.
Meanwhile, Conservatives lost in a historic fashion, conceding 251 seats and holding on to only 121 seats in parliament. Similar sweeping losses also befell the SNP; they lost 39 out of 48 seats. While these parties struggled, other parties picked up small gains nationwide as well. The Liberal Democrats, a center to center-left political party picked up 64 seats, to now control 72. The Green Party, an environment-centered leftist party, picked up three seats. Most strikingly, however, was the emergence of the Reform Party, which won five seats in its first-ever general election.
Despite the appearance of monumental gains, a closer examination of the share of the vote could be a cause for concern for Labour. Similar to the American Electoral College, the winning party in each constituency gets all the seats from that electoral district, creating an imbalance between the popular vote and the actual allocation of seats in the House of Commons. Therefore, despite doubling their seats, Labour only improved on their previous electoral showing by 1.6% of the national popular vote. Similar trends emerge in the huge gains made by the Liberal Democrats; despite winning a staggering six times as many seats compared to the previous election, they gained a paltry 0.3%. These trends suggest that it wasn't a surge in Labour and Lib Dem voters that contributed to their landslide victory, instead, a historic realignment of Conservative voters towards the right.
The Conservatives lost nearly half of their electorate, capturing 23.7% of the national popular vote, down almost 20% from the previous general election. But on the other hand, in a historic surge, the Reform Party won 14.3% of votes, improving on their previous showing of just 2%. Labour seats that flipped from Conservative seats were often won off of the spoiler effect; the Conservatives faced large defections of voters towards Reform, splitting the right-leaning vote between the two parties. What this suggests is that those on the British right are increasingly dissatisfied with the current state of immigration, with immigration becoming the most pressing issue for UK voters for the first time in several years, making the hardline stance espoused by Reform increasingly attractive.
Post-general election, many observers were looking forward to the first non-Conservative government in a profoundly-changed Britain. Despite being only a few months into his Premiership, Keir Starmer has faced several crises that may have shaken Labour’s grip on power. Most alarmingly were the series of immigration and racially tinged riots across Britain over late July and early August. Motivated by the stabbing deaths of three girls, anti-immigration and anti-Muslim groups took to the streets in violent and disruptive riots, targeting immigrant and minority-owned businesses and causing millions of pounds worth of damages. While the Labour government has cracked down on the violence and sought to press charges against hundreds of rioters, these prosecutions will do little to temper the British right’s vocal opposition to immigrants. The Reform Party leader Nigel Farage, while condemning the violence, used the opportunity to highlight his qualms with British immigration, stating that “[t]he majority of our population can see the fracturing of our communities as a result of mass, uncontrolled immigration.” With Labour unlikely to cede to demands, it seems likely that many more Britons will flock to the Reform Party in increasing numbers.
Additional issues persist for the new Labour government that may prove to be thorns in Labour’s side. Pressing in many citizens’ minds is the “crumbling” NHS. Starmer has pledged to undertake “controversial reforms” to address issues present in the NHS, but his policy of tying additional funding to these reforms may face increasing criticism, even within his own party. Additionally, the UK has been plagued by mass economic stagnation with increasing costs of living and decreasing wages proving difficult for many citizens. Besides the burden on ordinary citizens, Britain’s economic plights have been felt on its governmental budget. Starmer has already faced tough criticism after announcing large slashes to senior citizen winter fuel subsidies. In the face of years of economic and social strain, Labour will need to rapidly put Britain onto a new path if it hopes to not lose further public confidence.
The political future of Britain remains up in the air. Perhaps the most immediate issue is the future of the Conservative party. With the resignation of former Prime Minister and Conservative leader Rishi Sunak, the leader of the party remains in question. As the new force of the Reform Party sops up large portions of the Conservatives’ former base, the direction of the party is uncertain. Conservatives may engage in a goodwill campaign to the Reform Party’s base, shifting their core base and policies to the more populist and hardline ones that led many to be drawn to Reform. Conversely, the Conservatives may wish to gain more allies from the center, casting off the Reform Party’s right-wing ties and distancing themselves from their policies and rhetoric. However, an upcoming leadership election is likely to provide insight. The four remaining candidates represent the entire spectrum of the British right; candidates include Rishi Sunak’s former immigration minister, who has cast himself as a hard-right winger, and a former British intelligence officer, who has presented himself as a moderate and has voiced support for increased ties with the EU. The state of the leadership race remains uncertain but will be the start of change for the future of the party.
Additionally, the future of the UK’s key national questions are thrown into doubt. In Scotland, with the sharp decline in SNP seats and support, the party’s aspirations may falter with SNP leadership stating “the party had failed to convince people of the urgency of independence," and that it must "take time to consider and reflect.” The UK’s future with the EU remains similarly in doubt. Despite Starmer’s friendly EU rhetoric, he has increasingly faced criticism from EU officials with his rejection of the EU’s youth mobility scheme and rejoining of the Erasmus college exchange program. Starmer additionally has come into further conflict with some decrying his apparent “sidestepping” of EU policies in his European diplomatic policies and opposition to negotiations regarding the EU single market and free movement. The EU-British relationship will likely continue to hang in the balance absent a radical departure from current Labour policy.
UK politics is at a major crossroads. Despite the appearance of a resounding Labour victory, Labour will face significant pushback, especially from the increasingly vocal Reform Party. Coupled with increasing crises, it remains unlikely that Labour will enjoy the decade-plus of uninterrupted governance the Conservatives had. With the increasing division in UK politics, the next few years will prove instrumental to the course of the nation.